OPEC sees much higher oil supply from rivals in 2017


The Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (Opec), of which Saudi Arabia is the de-facto leader, and other producers including Russian Federation pledged to cut output by 1.8 million barrels per day (bpd) in the first half of the year to lift oil prices.

USA crude oil production seems to be derailing the efforts made by the Opec countries as it has risen to 9.293 million barrels per day (mbd) in April 2017, the highest level since August 2015 and up 10 per cent (0.865 mbd) from July 2016's low of 8.428 mbd.

Saudi Arabia's energy minister Khalid al-Falih said on Monday he expected the output deal to be extended to the end of the year or possibly longer.

An extension of the deal would push supply down even further in the second half of the year, the IEA's Neil Atkinson said at the Platts Crude Oil Summit in London on Wednesday.

Brent crude futures, the worldwide benchmark for oil prices, were at $49.33 per barrel at 0651 GMT on Tuesday, down from a high of $49.60 earlier in the day and near their last close.

Exchange-traded funds linked to oil prices, continued to climb today as crude prices remained on track to end the week in the green amid data showing that the US crude glut is shrinking and OPEC's production cuts are making a dent in global supplies.

U.S. crude stockpiles posted their biggest weekly drawdown since December last week as imports dropped sharply, while inventories of refined products also fell.

Saudi Aramco's decision to reduce oil supplies to Asia has seen prices rally again after recent declines.

Brent was 60 cents higher at $50.82 a barrel by 1255 GMT after hitting an early high of $51.09.

Surging U.S. production has raised concern the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries and partners are failing to reduce an oversupply and prop up prices.

In the research note entitled Oil Nearing Capitulation, Goldman Sachs said there was "growing evidence of the ability of United States shale to respond near $50 per barrel and the availability of capital to support such activity", according to MarketWatch.

"OPEC members have no choice but to talk up prices by signalling an extension to the production cuts agreement".

The EIA now estimates USA commercial crude oil inventories declined by 7.4 million barrels during April, compared with an average increase of 7.4 million barrels over the past five years.

OPEC meets on May 25 and the group's ministers have been talking up the chances of more production cuts.